Tuesday, March 08, 2005

Bush Middle East Policy

last night on the bbc radio they were interviewing a woman who was an open participant in a demonstration yesterday in front of the kuwaiti parliment.
she went onto say that things have changed rapidly in the past months, people are no longer afraid to discuss the idea of democracy and freedom for women to vote. freedom from radical islam and its fanatical followers, she even called them terrorists.
she said people should be allowed to live and let live.
the last two weeks we have had people marching on the streets in beirut demanding syria gets out of their country. a massive protest in which thousands have been waving the flags of their country - lebanon.
instead of flags of their particular factions which created a bloody civil war just thirty years ago.
we have had a law passed in egypt in feb. allowing for multi party elections for the first time ever which will allow (at least it says so in writing) for the opportunity of opposittion parties to become governing parties.
if you dont think bush had anything to do with the ability of these things coming about, and his empowerment psychologically for the rights of the individuals of these places to express themselves, i think you are mistaken.
allow me to give some examples about cause and effect, arafat had been put to the side already, no one had spoken with him for a full year give or take one or two foolish diplomats and ambassadors. the palestinian people were waiting for the old man to go one way or another.
clearly bush did not make arafat's bed, but certainly he made sleeping within it just a bit more uncomfortable.
as for hariri, there is no evidence to point one way or another to what would have happened if he hadnt been killed.
he was pushing for early elections before he got assassinated and was probably going to get his chance to become prime minister again and thus be a pain in the arse for the syrians.
i am still not 100% convinced it was the syrians who carried out the act and still hold out the possibility of it being biz related.
but clearly the syrians are now feeling the heat of hariri's death, whether they did it or not doesnt matter, what is important is the perception which most of us believe.
as for the people in the street, and the bush influence.......people get the freedom and wherewithall to speak out only after they see examples of it day after day. someone, somewhere gets the chutzpuh to say, yeah, alright, i think i agree with that, i think i am going to do something.
dont put down the forces of altering crowd behavior quickly. as i said about three years ago here, i highly recommend a football (soccer) book called 'amongst the thugs' as a classic study of how crowd mentality works.
bush aims for the crowd and i sincerely hope and suspect has people working the folks.
and let me point out this woman speaking out in kuwait yesterday probably has been working in conjunction with her movement for sometime........but here is the thing, the media is now starting to buy into this notion that bush is having an effect on the middle east. this after two years of constantly saying only more chaos was occuring here - thus it 'must' be true that his policy is now working.........get my point.
even if it isnt true, even if it had nothing to do with bush, in the end it will be because of bush because 'the enlightened ones' have deemded it so now. contradictory? maybe, but true none the less. history goes to the winner, bush is winning.

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