Monday, October 04, 2004

Iranian Implications

certainly israel will have to consider many of the implications of going after iran. attacking iran's nuclear sites might actually work to increase the power of the radical clerics there because for the past four or five years moderates have made some inroads within the govt structure in tehran and have a voice (though muffled) in which to be critical of economic and social injustices.
too, what bothers me is that israel becomes the designated bad guys in this scenerio. seems to me the world is keen to see iran without a nuclear capability but doesnt have the stomach for taking strong action and would prefer for israel to be the fall guy here.
i would much prefer that iran chooses to go another way (possibly becoming an island nation in the indian ocean for instance).
we are at least a half year away from any 'action'. this because i believe the states, israel, and anyone else (who this might include i am uncertain of and not sure if they even exist) taking the hardline approach will be forced to play along with a war of propaganda before anythings happens.
if israel chooses to be 'the bad guy' here, i will certainly expect to see missiles fired from lebanon by 'the army of god - hizbollah' deep into israel and iran to try out its latest technology from its own land of splendor. and if that is the case israel will use her air force unlike she has ever done.
this is the one that could get very messy and really become the type of war we are more accustomed to reading about in text books.............and i unfortunately may get a front row seat.

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