chaos and honey

as has been the case for a number of years now, whenever there is a chance for a major change or turning point for the israelis and palestinians, fanatics take charge. israel on the cusp of finalizing details to leave the gaza strip now is facing a barrage of low tech unsophisticated missiles being fired into sderot, a small town within the negev. early in the evening two kids were killed by these bombs and now israel will respond. early signs indicate that israel has cut the gaza strip into 3 zones to contain and go after certain guerilla (organized fanatic) cells.
point is that hamas and other palestinian groups who seek the complete destruction of israel would like nothing better than for israel to enter gaza once again and try to drag it into a long low level war that continues until israel simply melts away. it doesnt matter if israel melts away within the next twenty or one hundred years, it will be considered an astonishing victory no matter how long it takes. and this is what israel needs to be aware of, hamas and other fanatics seem to know that the only way to defeat israel is to keep fighting with her until israel weakens from within and it (the palestinian fanatics - futurists) become so strong they can simply walk into tel aviv and ask that the keys be handed over.
i am not kidding about this. israel has only two options to win the war with the palestinians and that is to take them on fully and destroy all fanatical institutions and cells 100% so they cannot and will not ever operate again which would take a massive ugly nature that israel would be hard pressed to make acceptable to anyone, OR to take unilateral steps and start building palestine for the palestinians now - first step would be to hand over gaza.
now when and if gaza is handed over israel should announce that it recognizes gaza as a legitimate nation - a palestinian nation. as a 'real' nation israel also must determine that palestine has a inherent responsibility to make sure its nation does not attack another. and if any missiles continue to be fired into israel from gaza - now the palestinian nation - that israel will see this as an act of war and take measures to make sure the palestinian nation no longer can carry forth such action and if it fails to do so a second time it will be considered an enemy nation - one in which is subject to 'rules' of war and must be eliminated.
strong sentiment, unlikely yes, but i believe the only way to get the palestinians moving towards a real nation - one that includes gaza and most of the west bank is to create an ultimatium.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/29/national/29asylum.html

yes, my family and i have moved out of jerusalem, finally, thank god, thank gorbachav......
i had a love hate relationship with jerusalem for the past six and a half years and it feels as if a thousand pound weight has been lifted from my shoulders.
i managed to stay in jerusalem for so long because of my wife, though she will certainly deny that she was the main reason we were consistently there.
as for being out of harm's way now, no such thing in israel. there is no place that is safe, no place that is too far away from chaos and certainly no guarentee on one's fate.
i am glad to be in kfar saba, we have gone from olive trees to the smell of avacado, mango, and orange trees.........
it is a welcome change.

i have been asked if i believe the u.s. is losing the war in iraq......
i believe if kerry wins this coming election the u.s. is sure to suffer more in iraq and leave with little being accomplished except for opening the door to a very bloody civil war in what will be known as a land that once was called iraq and will go the way of yugoslavia (this when the u.n gets it hands on the chaos left behind).
i dont even want to go into the details of the cauldrun this kind of result will open up regarding turkey's involvement with the kurds, iran's with the shi'ite, not to mention the bitterness of the sunnis which will all erupt and make for a rather brutal decade.
i have been saying for a long time now that what we are seeing in iraq is a 'siesta' of sorts because of the upcoming u.s. election. maybe it is because of my bias and hope that this part of the world can actually create a foundation or two in which modern facets 'a la turkey' start to occur. for that to happen, we need to see strong policy come forth not only from washington but from iraqi leadership who take firm control of their country and guide her through a very difficult task.
it is my hope that bush understands the task at hand. thus my simple answer in long verse is NO, the war is not lost, and it is not being lost. we are simply seeing american politics take precedent over a festering sore known as the middle east for the past four months. a bush victory would bring about a renewed ferver to see the parade completed. i have no idea where it will end, and fear for the black hole, but end of day i am optimistic that our little part of the world will one day advance (what other choice do i have?). turkey is the model..........we shall see if iraq can photograph as nicely.

does anyone really think kerry is about to change now? he has been involved in politics nearly 30 years and historically has always been an anti-war / appeasement tool. he is not about to suddenly come up with a grand strategy that is going to satisfy anyone looking for an answer regarding a new policy in iraq except the camp that would like an early exit and let the crapoola fly where it may.........look for bush to scorch kerry in foreign affairs debate, maybe not on details but on appearance. bush is about to paint kerry as someone that can not take a tough stand and is indecisive. bush will start to cement his lead this weekend.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/481903.html

heres an interesting article from the telegraph in britain speaking with omar bakri about what took place in russia.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/09/05/wosse705.xml
apparently he believes that it is justified to target schools in britain.
we learn from others - unfortunately sometimes.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/06/international/europe/06plot.html?hp
the above is a ny times article which reports that the attack turned massacre was planned for sometime and that the terrorists (i think fanatics is too kind a word) were well trained and equiped. what i dont get above all is - what in the world did these maniacs believe they were going to accomplish with this act? it is clear that there are those amongst us who have a different reality, but this murderous act went beyond all.
we are only now beginning to understand what we are up against. this is only the opening stage of a long drawn out drama. i may be way off base, i may be suffering from illusions out of fear, but i really believe more than ever that we are starting to see certain avenues open which point towards bedlam, bloodletting, and a prolonged period of conflict......everyday the secularlists wait to act against the fanatics in a unified manner is going to mean additional casualities.
it is also time the world stops allowing fanatics to be hidden and lied for by govts that would rather close their eyes to facts, again i am talking mainly about the countries in which the fanatics are grown. if they cannot take responsibility for their fanatics it is time that others do it for them. even though china, russia, and the u.s. may have different goals collectively as nations, there certainly comes a time during historical periods in which competitors make for unusual alliances. now is one of those times, a unified doctrine by these three superstates would allow for certain tasks to get done properly.
my question - what did the terrorists actually think they were going to accomplish still stands. perhaps it is more rhetorical in nature, because per my 'normal' checklist i just cannot see how these murderers thought they would accomplish anything except to alieninate their causes even more. but maybe that should be the point for all of us, sometimes in life we dont have to understand why all the time..........sometimes we just must stick to what we believe is correct and go on through the mist and into the clear.
unfortunately one aspect is abundantly self evident, we are different from them. maybe it is all an illusion, pragmatic idealism in order to justify our feelings of loathing for the outcome in russia. i am certain that on the other side their is a 'truth' too to which they grasp. i despise having to choose a side in life and point to someone else and say that my side is correct, but this is where we stand. whether we want it or not, at some point we are going to be reminded of our 'place' no matter how apathetic (or sympathetic towards the fanatics) we are.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/474476.html
above link is an important and scathing opinion piece from ha'aretz by Avi Beker regarding the terrorist attack carried out in argentina ten years ago and the failure of the world not responding.

kerry has lost this election........bush will win it, there is almost no doubt now.
bush just got a good economic report (one that the great unwashed looks at) and he only has one more month's worth of economic news to go before the elections.
stock market too has turned positive and shown some strenght in the past two weeks.
as for world news, as i have said repeatedly bush needs to maintain status quo for the next two months, most of the voters that will vote because of international affairs have made their choice many moons ago.
the great switch voters by and large will vote their pocketbook.
kerry is about to become dukakis (this doesnt mean he will lose in a landslide) but i firmly believe he wont be given a chance to become the 'rich' carter........
but the most important thing is the way in which kerry is now conducting his election campaign.
it is something that tends to happen almost each election, there is a defining moment within a campaign when the candidate either can put up or the public embraces the negatives.
it happened to dukakis with the terrific 'tank' photo and the liberal tag that got pasted to his back, it happened to dole who effectively let his campaign managers not allow him to show his real personality and thus he came off as a square peg and too conservative, and now it is happening to kerry who has taken a major hit on his vietnam record but just as important is being shown as someone who is indecisive, not to mention too liberal.
republicans are doing a better job of smearing (and i am not talking about what jews do to bagels), which reminds me.........i am hungry, time to have a bite.

for whatever reason there are certain countries in europe, actually they are not the countries - BUT THE politicians, diplomats, and media of certain euroland areas that still fail to see what the world is facing.
for whatever systemic reason europe fails to see imminent threats repeatedly. they failed to see them throughout their two centuries of war during the 19th and 20th centuries and once again they prefer to look the other way and hope for the best.
one only has to listen to the sentiment on the 'great' bbc world service.
last night they actually had the chutzpuh to interview a palestinian psychologist and ask him what effects the russian children could expect to suffer from because of the trauma they had witnessed and sustained. the bbc presented it as if the trauma that the children of palestine is on the same scale and for the same reasons.
while i dont wish any bad will on the children of gaza and their life predicament, nor this psychologist, it was a case of turning the world upside down. facts dont matter as much as bias, and this is what we will continue to have happen on a global scale until the world wakes up and asks the responsible parties to change their neighborhoods or have them changed with force from the outside.
those who do not get it will continue to suffer at the hands of this terror more so than the countries that combat it.
i suspect the countries that will come out of this war stronger will be those with a good central govt (this doesnt mean a dictatorship btw) and a majority of the population that has the stomach for the fight, namely the u.s., russia, and china come to mind & and the smaller players which will make it known that they are allies in the fight. it is a fight. some still refuse to see it, we shouldnt be surprised, history is repeating itself.
it all makes me feel very weary for the future of a united europe. perhaps now is not the time to use this tragedy as an indicator but i think it clearly shows that some will never quite understand what is taking place until it is too late. but then again, what is too late? it means different things to different people. i cant but help but wonder what goes through putin's mind when he hears certain camps speak about the massacre as if he is to blame for a school full on innocent children being taken and destroyed. unfortunately i think the world is going to become far more interesting before it gets good and dull.